Political Articles
GAS PAIN
From a distance, we see that energy prices are increasing everywhere. As a matter of fact, Turkey is not out of this. It can’t be anyway. Especially since NATURAL GAS prices have jumped, electricity costs from gas also differ. It is climbing higher. When all the numbers are going up, the prices are also going up. In Turkey, there are ELECTRIC BILLS on all the headlines. From tradesmen to households, from industrialists to medium-sized producers… And it doesn’t seem like there will be an easy solution any time soon!
But why? That was the question I followed. We know and experience inflation around the world. Even in Norway electricity prices were protested. People went off to the street. They called for “take back the raises”. However, I was wondering the answer to the question “what happened that GAS prices flew up, along with electricity bills?” And when Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s “I WON’T PAY MY BILL” output came, it was like a different lane. Then, to understand what was going on, I reached out to my friend who knows these things best.
I asked the questions “WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH NATURAL GAS? WHY ELECTRICITY BILLS RISE? AND IS THERE A POSSIBILITY OF A DECREASE, WHEN WILL IT HAPPEN? These are the questions that I am sure everyone is waiting for answers to…
My friend started from COVID-19… “With the pandemic, the lock down periods came. The news of fear, anxiety, intensive care and death reduced natural gas consumption. The balance between SUPPLY and DEMAND was shaken. So, the prices came back.
The demand was uncontrollable. The revival of economies and life after vaccines increased the demand for gas. There was an explosion of demand in almost every geography. However, this was not the only reason that made prices go up. One of the main reasons was that countries like CHINA-JAPAN-INDIA built huge STORAGE areas, warehouses! And they hung on the gas. They filled their tanks with the gas they bought. This caused the changes in prices. We could not do this job in Silivri and Salt Lake. However, this alone was not enough to explain the increase in prices. I think it was because of the CLIMATE CHANGE issue that investments in NATURAL GAS were stopped. Currently, there is a 75 percent escape from NATURAL GAS as an investment. GAS is not in the lead role where the world wants to be taken…
The area in which 100 TL was invested until yesterday is now content with 25 TL. This is roughly the situation… Alternative energies are being studied. This is the trend in the world…” What about the Iran issue? What happened there?
Iran plays this game every year. Our contract with them expires in 2026. This winter is very harsh there, too. Iran is sending us the gas it extracted from the south. And what it bought from TURKMENISTAN… Recently, there has been a problem between the two countries.
When Iran could not easily get gas from there, it took the risk of paying COMPENSATION and gave it to its own people. It warmed the north. There was a great need. There will be a penalty for the deal. But they are ready to pay its cost… We can say that they have already started the negotiations in 2026…”
So, is Iran important to us? Can we give up? As in the world, there is an increase in gas consumption in Turkey as well. For example, we used 40 billion cubic meters last year. It is over 50 this year. Russia does not and will not give even a SINGLE MOLECULE outside the contract. Iran knows this too. Although Israel and the EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN gas cannot be a solution, it will be a dressing for the wound. But they keep changing the prices. It’s not exactly clear. It is necessary to look at the costs. So is the LNG market. It’s very wavy. Your chances of buying it and using it with peace of mind are slim. Prices change places frequently… This makes it difficult to take a step…”
How will the UKRAINE crisis and sanctions between Europe and Russia affect GAS trade? Will we experience a gas crisis? It will not not affect. It shouldn’t affect. Fight and trades are different things. However, it is a fact that gas has begun to be used as a weapon. As per the contracts, if EUROPE does not get what it demands, it pays the penalty! If Russia does not send the amount to be given, it will be billed. This is trade. It is provided by agreements… Nord Stream-2 is over as you know. However, it has not yet been given the gas.
We are waiting for it. Germany is a big customer. However, alternative energy routes are being used too much. Natural gas does not receive investments in EUROPE either. They supply the gas as LNG from Qatar-Egypt-Algeria-Nigeria. It is true that it is not enough. Consumption also skyrocketed in Europe. The numbers are much higher than expected…
Putin saw this and started to use it… Politics also got involved… Will gas prices decrease worldwide? Will electricity bills turn back to normal? Will it become cheaper?
It is not possible from today to tomorrow. If we build gas supply diversity with Israel, increase the 10 billion cubic meters we buy from Iran and sign a long-term contract, prices will come back to some extent. The advantages we will gain through bargaining will drive prices down. This can be a step. Russia will not help us in this matter. The bills they give to Europe and us are different. This will not change. We will have to go with other solutions. We need some time to meet the Black Sea gas…
My friend told me these things. It is not known how the government will save on electricity bills. We will wait and see. However, there does not seem to be a global decrease in gas prices… According to my friend, who is one of the people who knows these things best, this is the situation…
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11.02.2022
Political Articles
The Rest is Detail
The Rest is Detail
Middle East, Africa, and Ukraine are currently the main centers of the global war. Turkiye’s surroundings are also the same… Actually, the struggle that began with the collapse of the Soviet Union gained momentum in the 2000s and is now moving towards obtaining results. The leader Macron is the one who speaks most clearly and openly about the situation. Since his arrival, he has stood against the USA. When he said “NATO’s brain death has occurred,” he meant a lot. Since the first day of Russia’s occupation of UKRAINE, I have been writing “This is an operation to destroy and collapse Europe. A secret alliance between the USA and Russia… They agreed. They are attacking the EU…” French leader Macron also began to walk from the points I was trying to write about shortly after the war started. Russia did not limit its intervention to Ukraine. In an interview he gave to a TV channel the other day, he said, “The war is now on European soil…
There is a distance of less than 1500 kilometers between Strasbourg and Lviv.” French President Emmanuel Macron said that if Russia, which he described as a rival, wins the war, Europe’s credibility will drop to zero. He also added that they would never be safe if the Moscow administration won the war. Upon the question, Macron replied, “We have only one goal; Russia cannot and should not win the war.. They are now our enemies..” In the past few days, the much-discussed issue of sending troops to Ukraine was reopened. In response to the question asked, he evaluated, “All these options are possible, and the only responsible for this will be the Moscow regime”…
So Macron was clearly stating that Russia’s operation was against Europe. The other members were not so brave because they were afraid… And no one was asking the question, “Why did Russia start this war when its relations with Europe were so good and almost a strategic partnership was established?” Anyway…
In last year’s elections, there was a change of power in POLAND. The Law and Justice Party, which had been in power continuously for eight years and had gradually moved the country’s course towards a conservative-nationalist line, thus distancing itself from Europe, lost its dominance. A name who has taken an oath to integrate Poland with the EU became Prime Minister. Donald Tusk… Tusk served as Prime Minister from 2007 to 2014.
Then we saw him as the President of the European Council. He took office in this position in 2014. And he held it until 2019. It was not difficult to see that Tusk was clearly anti-American both during his prime ministership and his presidency of the Council. For example, while Tusk was the President of the Council, he said, “United States President Donald Trump is probably the toughest test for the EU”.
He pointed out that Trump welcomed Britain’s decision to leave, treated the EU as an ‘enemy’ in trade, and questioned the value of NATO, the transatlantic defense alliance. Speaking to the German weekly Die Zeit, Tusk said, “For the first time in history, we see an American president who openly takes such hostile positions against Europe. He supports Brexit and prays for the breakup of our union…”.
He was bold enough to say the main idea of Europe with the statement: “The real geopolitical problem arises when you cannot predict the movements of your closest friend, not your rival. That’s how we have a problem with our partner across the ocean (USA). Because the USA doesn’t have many friends anymore…”.
The politician from Poland was once again summarising the issue like Macron. “If Europe does not really begin to take care of its security more, if we leave the security of Europe only to the goodwill and defense desire of the USA, then it will end in disaster sooner or later…” Coming in as Prime Minister for the second time, Tusk expressed his outrage at the proposed aid to Ukraine being slashed by Republicans in the United States, saying “SHAME ON YOU” with his words. Donald Tusk, who has completed just one year in office, recalled ambassadors from 50 countries. While all names in favor of the USA withdrew, completely EU-friendly diplomats were appointed in their place. Naturally, this was not liked by both the USA and Russia. Putin brought up POLAND at every opportunity. And he would say again and again, “Poland wants to invade Ukraine.”
In an interview with Russia 1 TV, the Russian leader said, “If Polish soldiers enter Ukrainian territory to protect the Ukraine-Belarus border or to send Ukrainian troops behind the lines to the front, I don’t think they will leave again”. Right after Macron’s statement, he said he can send troops to Ukraine, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, in his statement, used the expression, “We can consider sending NATO troops to Ukraine.”
So Russia was fighting in UKRAINE to devour and collapse the European Union. England was walking, thinking that both sides would lose if the war dragged on. As I have written thousands of times, the USA was acting with the motto “If Europe collapses, the biggest trading partner China will go, I will set the game…
I will continue my empire.” The weakest muscle of the EU was being far from energy. The USA-RUSSIA game was being played according to this. Therefore, when it came to energy, our borders were immediately disturbed. EUROPE wanted to come down here with Turkiye or without Turkiye, and it was looking for a solution to its problem, and the opposite block did not want to allow this. Roughly speaking, this arm wrestling formed the summary of everything happening in the world. The Kurdish issue, Kandil, HDP and its alliances, CHP, Demirtas, YPG, ISIS, Imamoglu, the summit with Baghdad, all of them had to be evaluated under the same roof.
Because we were convinced that the USA and the EU would not fight, we either did not understand what was happening or, if we understood, it was too late. Think about the PKK we suffered from for years! Iran fights, Esad pushes, Turkiye enters Northern Iraq hundreds of times, the USA provides instant intelligence support, Israel sends technology, but the PKK never ended! There was something more than a terrorist organization in front of us! The sides of the GLOBAL war were clear. Turkiye would make its choice and move forward. That’s the issue… The rest is detail…
16.03.2024
Political Articles
US and China
US and China
Northern Iraq, PKK, YPG, China, the Middle East, the US, EU, UK, Russia, the financial system, Iran, Israel, Hamas, Palestine, Uyghurs, economic balances, and distributed roles… The exclusion of a power, a focus, depends not on the magnitude of its problems but on its inability to produce solutions. Even though we may not know it as ordinary people, the ROLES OF COUNTRIES are generally determined by GREAT POWERS. That’s why they are GREAT…
There are few countries at this scale! The US leads the way. Since WORLD WAR II… It came with its military, brought peace to Europe. It established its own system. It took the imperial seal from ENGLAND. Europe rose from the ashes. It chose unity over war. It stood up to the US. This was the biggest fight of all. It was still going on. Blond, blue-eyed people were not friends, allies, brothers but enemies! Turkiye assumed that the struggle was between SIDES because it did not see the struggle within the WESTERN SIDE. It was boiling. We were missing it.
After the end of the war, the US invited China to the table. History books don’t tell you this. This was the first step towards China after the miracle economic treatment applied to Japan. It was the mind. It was the vision. And they did it. The US was giving an economic miracle to JAPAN, which it bombed with atomic bombs! The Americans, looking from the other side of the ocean, joyfully said, “Great… Now let’s take this model to people who will work for a sack of rice” and they did. This was CHINA!
China was a GIANT that grew by ATTRACTING INVESTMENT. As long as investment came, there was no problem! What if it didn’t come? The problem was huge… But it wasn’t understood. It was looked at with love for jerseys. Hatred for the US prevented the truth from being seen. The wealth of the US did not come from what they produced themselves. Especially China was producing more. The US was allowing what was produced to flow into its own territories. China, the producer, was also becoming a CREDITOR on paper.
China, Japan, the EU, and other countries wanted to escape from this dependency and see the US stumble. They were right. But they had no SOLUTIONS! The US was the one who saw the problems and was scratching its head for solutions. The US’s problems were very big. They had the potential to deal with them. They had efforts. For now, there is no debate about what the new economic order should be like on earth. Everyone is continuing their journey in a resigned state, hoping that the problems will be solved one day!
US President Nixon and Kissinger opened the door to China in the early 1970s. The money, technology, and model all came from Washington. Signs similar to the miracle in Japan began to appear 7-8 years later. China’s average annual growth rate was over 8% between 1980 and 2019. This showed that they were growing faster than the economies of all Western countries. The pace picked up in the 2000s.
As technologies were renewed and investments flowed, China got stronger. The promise of GROWTH fell short. China began to make its own technology investments, produce patents, and academic publications. Books were being written, series and movies were being made, open sessions were being held, chairs were being established at universities, and a “GIANT” was being told about China. And everyone, including our media, was saying, “CHINA HAS COME AND OVERTURNED THE US, IT IS ABOUT TO OVERTAKE IT” There is no need to give names. But it could be read like this. ABD was the one who grew China, the giant it raised, would lose to it, history would write it as “BIG FOOLISHNESS”. If it happens, of course…
Recently, the boss of CHINA held a COMMUNIST PARTY meeting. Under the name of CHINA NATIONAL PEOPLE’S CONGRESS… The aim was to stop the course and turn it around. I looked, I didn’t see a new model. I didn’t hear a new opening. No proposal was made on how to deal with the deepening real estate crisis, hundreds of millions of dollars of local government debt, falling prices, increasing youth unemployment, loss of business and consumer confidence, and deteriorating economic indicators. While the US found solutions to its problems, China struggled and remained helpless! THAT WAS THE DIFFERENCE. Very few understood! Let’s continue; let’s come to Turkiye’s new role and the region…
I wrote “RED ALERT FOR THE US”. When the dates were showing 2020, China surpassed the US and became the largest trading partner of the European Union. The total value of imports and exports between China and the EU reached $709 billion. Trade between the EU and the US, on the other hand, remained at $671 billion. If the US was a superpower, it would object to this. That’s what I wrote then. And they did. Without asking anyone’s permission or consulting anyone, the NORTH STREAM PIPELINES were blown up. Neither the whole UNION nor RUSSIA, who were a UNION, said a word. WHY? Because Russia was a secret and important ally of the US…
Here the final picture was opening the way for Russia’s entry into UKRAINE. When Russia cut off energy, first Europe and then its top commercial partner were having a hard time. Simultaneously, when real estate crises like EVERGRANDE were added, CHINA and EUROPE were in trouble at the same time. The US was sending its NAVY to the MEDITERRANEAN and saying, “No one can enter these areas while I’m here.” China could not take on a role beyond offering good wishes. While the US was dealing with its internal problems, it was also dealing with other problems. THE MIDDLE EAST and the KURDISH ISSUE were at the forefront here.
Right at this point, there was a great need for Turkiye. They also needed Ankara’s attitude. Turkiye was capable of influencing the fate of the match in the region. The pushback of the EU and China by the US-Russia alliance changed Turkiye’s position as well. This was what should have happened. Close with England, warm relations with China were somewhat taken back. At least for now, it was necessary to be on the winning side. Changing balances, changing conditions, would bring changing attitudes. Turkiye would now show that it had changed in the REGION. Although the KURDS owned the oil, this was not enough to protect themselves. They were doomed on a surrounded piece of land.
The control of these regions would be given to Turkiye so that “EU-CHINA could not reach it”, and it had to be given. Otherwise, it was not possible. While these were happening globally, it was impossible for domestic politics to remain the same! There would be purges. The new global system would open the door to a great Turkiye. Turkiye would play a very big game, but its economy, which was going to be even bigger, would be kept in a SENSITIVE situation. Ankara should progress by solving this! If we look at the events strategically rather than emotionally, we will see the path to be taken more clearly.
We must ask these questions: “What’s happening at the top of the world? Who needs whom?” and become one of the options and grow. We must move forward. Problems are temporary. We have a great opportunity and it must be seen.
15.03.2024
Political Articles
Seesaw
Seesaw
The attack by HAMAS on October 7th, Selahattin Demirtas’s defense and his repositioning, the emergence of his wife Basak Demirtas’s name for the ISTANBUL CANDIDACY, KANDIL’s repulsion of this, Blinken’s visits, significant steps extending from Ankara to Erbil and Baghdad, and trips to the USA, meetings…
There were plenty of signals that the region would change. It was already clear since the arrival of the USA to the region in the 1990s. Turkiye lost a lot of time. It neither understood what was happening nor worked on the Kurdish issue. Deep USA would put an end to the anti-USA sentiment in the region and would want to steer the PKK, which set off on its path as a LEFTIST ORGANIZATION, into its own lane. “LEFT” was defined as anti-USA sentiment. All the reasons put forward for the war were fairy tales. The United States of America entered IRAQ to gain ground and take the lead in the war within the West. And from the beginning, their intention was to separate and protect the KURDS. They would overcome the deep-rooted OPPOSITION in the region in this way. That was the plan. Roughly…
There was only one thing needed for this fiction to happen! And that was Turkiye’s partnership, support, involvement. For years, Ankara advocated that the borders should NOT CHANGE. However, if there were no wars and the borders did not change, what would history write… We didn’t understand. The confessions that came years later already revealed this…
For example, after retiring, Land Forces Commander Aytac Yalman said: “If the problem could have been solved at the social level before it turned into terrorism, it would have been much better. From this perspective, we see that the problem was described as ‘self-expression’ at that stage. They want to speak their language, listen to their song, ballad, and live their culture. Whereas, we were trained at that time as ‘there is no Kurd’. We see Kurds as an arm of Turks. There were descriptions like ‘Kurds were called Kurds because they made kart-kurt sounds while wandering around in the mountains, walking in the snow,’ circulating.
At that time, even their social demands were seen by us within the scope of ‘destructive activities’…” The bitter aspect was that the Americans knew the region and the people, but we were missing the point. With the involvement of EUROPEAN intelligence, the issue grew, evolved into TERRORISM, and a disaster called “PKK” emerged… Although the matter directly concerned us, those in politics in Ankara, those filling the seats did not see that this war was within the WESTERN BLOCK. Even after years had passed, they did not understand. The USA was coming to the region not for IRAQ but for EUROPE. Turkiye could not see this and take action. Those who engaged in politics on behalf of the Kurds did not understand, did not want to understand, and attributed the issue to the RECOGNITION OF IDENTITY and CULTURE.
Iraq was intervened in twice, the region changed, but the length of the sentences formed did not exceed two words. IDENTITY or CULTURE, which one would solve the problems of the KURDISH PEOPLE in the region?
It is like a joke! The rhythm of the GLOBAL struggle was ECONOMIC. There was a great struggle based on reaching, owning, and distributing energy. The USA was here for that. To see Russia go to UKRAINE and to witness the difficulty of Europe, the power that wanted to give up the global claim, namely the USA, would they hand over the oil and gas of this region to the EU? This was the CODE OF WAR. We saw this GLOBAL economic war as the OCCUPATION of Iraq, as PKK, as YPG, as INTELLIGENCE WARS, as ASSASSINATIONS, as bombings.
While Europe wanted to divide the country through PKK, the USA was striving for the recognition of the KURD as “KURD”. This struggle affected both the internal politics of the two major powers and the Kurdish politics and the PKK and Kandil. HDP or now DEM was not a single entity. It was dominated by EUROPE. However, there was not a lack of rivalry both within themselves and with ENGLAND. Kandil was like a coalition. The YPG side was clear. It was under the control of the USA… Circumstances have been pushing Turkiye to make decisions for a long time. Our prescription and treatment method had been wrong for years.
President Erdogan was in Sirnak yesterday. “The region will find joy”, he said. He was right. ECONOMIC support had already begun to be given the region. When the region got richer, when the share taken from the national income increased, freedoms would follow. Major problems would gradually melt away. Let’s continue…
Putin, speaking to his own media, made important statements… Russian President, “There is a very strong desire among Western elites to maintain the status quo, the unjust situation in international relations. For centuries, they have been accustomed to filling their stomachs with human flesh and their pockets with money. However, they must realize that the vampires’ ball is coming to an end,” he said. He started talking about the Ukraine war. He repeated what he said a few times… “I will try to explain.
We have put forward a draft agreement with the Ukrainian side in the negotiations in Istanbul. And the summary of this agreement was signed by Mr. Arahamiya (Ukrainian politician David Arahamiya). It bears his signature. It exists in the Kremlin archives. However, it is known that later, in a meeting with journalists, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson came and it is known that he convinced them not to sign this agreement…” It was perfectly natural for Boris Johnson to want both the weakening of the EU and Russia with a prolonged war! Russian leader Putin then came to the critical part, the NUCLEAR weapons section… He shared the sentences that need to be read with emphasis…
“Militarily and technically, we are of course ready for NUCLEAR WAR. Our nuclear forces are always ready for war… US President Joe Biden represents the traditional political school… His refusal to send troops to Ukraine confirms this. There are experts in the field of Russian-American relations and strategic deterrence, apart from Biden. Therefore, I do not think that countries are heading for war…” So Putin, by saying “There are centers that control developments other than ours. The USA does this job very well. There is no war or anything between us. There won’t be…” was transferring the balance of roles!
“Our nuclear trio is more modern than what all other countries have. In fact, the nuclear trio exists only in us and the Americans…” he was explaining the GOOD COP, BAD COP, or seesaw! The USA was the center of nuclear power. This center, as required by the fiction, was also elevating Russia to the nuclear league. The Kremlin was threatening EUROPE 24/7 with this power. That’s how the game was set… The participation power and determination of Russia were as important as the mind of the USA in this game…
These two powers, ultimately, were continuing their secret alliance in Syria too. These were happening right under our noses, just beyond our borders. As I have been trying to convey for a long time, their goal was to weaken the power of EUROPE and ENGLAND in this region. It was to prevent them from setting the stage. It was to cut off their ties with energy…
On the other hand, the KURDISH CARD, which had been waiting for 20 years, was still alive and fresh. It needed to be controlled and managed. As I wrote yesterday, it was not a “SECRET” that ARABS looked at KURDS as “collaborators.” Only Turkiye could provide the balance. Economically-politically-militarily-strategically, Turkiye was the only friend of the Kurds! For sure. This would open the door to the region’s transformation. Both politically and economically, benefits would start to emerge. After this, the MIDDLE EAST would move to a different arena. That was the situation. The Century of Turkiye would be built on brotherhood-power-wealth-peace. The control of the region would pass through the buttons under ANKARA’s control… That’s what I see…
14.03.2024
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